Dr Joan Swart

Author · 28 articles

NONGQAI'S Strategic Security Analist Dr Joan Swart is a forensic psychologist with an MBA and an MA in Military Studies. Her work focuses on African security, geopolitics, state fragility, substate dynamics, and the intersection between governance, legitimacy, and coercive power. She is the author of several books and regularly publishes long-form analysis and opinion pieces on security and governance issues. Her writing has appeared in outlets including DefenceWeb, Maroela Media, Netwerk24, RSG, Visegrad, and other policy and public-affairs platforms. Her work bridges academic research, policy analysis, and applied strategic assessment, and she is currently completing a second PhD at the University of Stellenbosch Military Academy.

Articles by Dr Joan Swart

Anglo Boer War / Anglo-Boereoorlog

The Life and Times of Lieutenant Colonel John Walter McLean OBE VD (MID), 1855–1939

The remarkable life of Lieutenant Colonel John Walter McLean OBE VD (MID) spans more than six decades of South African military and civic history. From the early volunteer forces of the Eastern Cape and the frontier campaigns to the Anglo-Boer War, the First World War and the Railway and Harbour Brigade, this account preserves the experiences, service and legacy of a soldier closely associated with the Kaffrarian Rifles and the history of East London.

SANDF / SANW

What Kind of Defence Force Does South Africa Need?

South Africa's defence challenges extend beyond inadequate funding and declining operational readiness. The country needs to reassess the purpose, structure and capabilities of its defence force in relation to its own security environment, national interests and available resources. Comparing military inventories with other African states misses the more fundamental question of strategic relevance.

KULTURELE IDENTITEIT/CULTURAL IDENTITY

The World Between the Lines: The Fortress Where Lions Dwell — Abu'l-Fazl Beyhaqi and the Illusion of Easy Victory, Joan Swart

Abu'l-Fazl Beyhaqi’s eleventh-century history offers enduring lessons in military strategy, from the dangers of overconfidence and misjudging an adversary to the importance of logistics, adaptation and sound decision-making. Through Beyhaqi’s account of military setbacks and strategic decline, this article explores why historical insights remain relevant to understanding the challenges of warfare today.

Defence Policy and Strategy

Medium Term Budget Policy Statement and SA Defence, Joan Swart

South Africa’s 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement highlights the gap between defence funding, operational readiness and strategic ambition. Examining budget adjustments, military performance indicators and the unresolved strategic framework, this article considers whether the SANDF can sustain its commitments within the country’s fiscal constraints.

Defence Policy and Strategy

The Zama Zama Problem, Joan Swart

South Africa’s Zama Zama crisis extends beyond illegal mining into organised crime, institutional vulnerability and national security. Tactical operations can disrupt activity, but lasting progress requires intelligence-led investigations, institutional integrity, financial disruption, community cooperation and economically viable long-term solutions.

Defence Policy and Strategy

When Military Power Runs Out of Road Joan Swart

Military power is constrained by more than weapons, soldiers and technology. From Napoleon's disastrous Russian campaign to the US war with Iran and South Africa's operations in Central Africa, the ability to sustain forces at distance can determine what military power can actually achieve.

Defence Policy and Strategy

Is a Second-Order Arab Spring Emerging? Joan Swart

War-related disruption, economic pressure and growing public dissatisfaction are increasingly converging across the Middle East. The conditions differ from those of 2011, but their interaction could create a second-order Arab Spring dynamic in which external conflict feeds existing domestic grievances and produces a new wave of regional unrest.

Africa and Global Power

The World Between the Lines: The White Man's Burden by Rudyard Kipling, Joan Swart

Written in 1899 as America crossed into overseas empire, Rudyard Kipling’s The White Man’s Burden offers a revealing view of power, responsibility and the assumptions of imperialism. More than a century later, its deepest question remains: does the power to intervene confer the wisdom or the right to reshape another society?

Defence Policy and Strategy

Voltaire, Huntington, Brzezinski and South African Strategic Identity in a Multipolar World, Joan Swart

As the global order becomes increasingly multipolar, South Africa faces a strategic dilemma: it possesses significant geopolitical advantages but lacks a settled conception of its national interest. This article explores whether strategic identity & culture, sovereignty and strategic autonomy can provide common ground despite the country's competing histories, identities and political traditions.

History

The Day Everyone Went to the Boats

In 1993, pilot Crause Steyl flew the Ghost Rider into Soyo as UNITA forces advanced and the town’s defenders fled by boat. His unexpected decision to land helped turn a seemingly doomed operation around, opening the way for Executive Outcomes’ first contract and its subsequent role in training Angola’s army.

Defence Policy and Strategy

Can Foreign Policy be Separated from Morality? Joan Swart

Foreign policy is often presented as a calculation of national interest, separate from emotion and morality. Yet national interest itself is shaped by history, values and strategic culture, raising a difficult question: when principle, international law and material interests conflict, how should a state decide what it ought to do?

Defence Policy and Strategy

South Africa's Unfinished Strategic Culture, Joan Swart

South Africa inherited distinct military and political traditions that were never fully synthesised into a coherent post-1994 strategic culture. Rebuilding effective military strategy and doctrine therefore requires neither restoration nor rejection, but a deliberate synthesis of professional, technological and operational strengths with the legitimate lessons of the liberation experience.

Defence Policy and Strategy

Has South Africa Overlooked One of Its Greatest Strategic Assets? Joan Swart

Recurring disruptions in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz have restored the strategic importance of the Cape Sea Route. Yet South Africa continues to treat its maritime position primarily as a transport issue rather than a national strategic asset. This article argues for an integrated national strategy to transform geographic advantage into economic resilience, maritime security and national power.

Defence Policy and Strategy

Strategic Petroleum Stocks: A Test of South Africa's National Strategy, Joan Swart

South Africa's draft Strategic Petroleum Stocks Policy is about far more than fuel security. It signals a renewed appreciation that national resilience cannot be left entirely to market forces, and that strategic endurance requires deliberate investment before—not during—times of crisis.

Defence Policy and Strategy

Amazon Changes the Starlink Debate, Joan Swart

Amazon's planned entry into South Africa's satellite internet market fundamentally shifts the Starlink debate from individual companies to the governance of strategic digital infrastructure. As communications infrastructure becomes increasingly central to national development and resilience, states must develop governance frameworks that balance investment, local capability, digital sovereignty and national interests.

Defence Policy and Strategy

The Battlefield Before the Battlefield, Joan Swart

The funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei demonstrates how states can employ ritual, symbolism and mass mobilisation as instruments of strategic communication before military force is ever employed. Recognising and correctly interpreting such signals is an increasingly important competency for military professionals operating in a multipolar world.

CSIR

Defence Research Is About More Than Technology, Joan Swart

Defence research is about far more than technology. It is the mechanism through which a defence establishment learns, adapts and remains strategically relevant. This article argues that the real challenge is not simply increasing R&D expenditure, but ensuring that research continuously informs strategy, doctrine, capability development and defence policy.

National Security - Nasionale Veiligheid

Five Years After July 2021: Is South Africa Better Prepared? Joan Swart

Five years after the July 2021 unrest exposed serious weaknesses in South Africa's national security architecture, questions remain about the country's preparedness for future instability. Drawing on the findings of the Expert Panel and SAHRC investigations, this article examines what lessons were identified, what vulnerabilities remain, and whether South Africa is better equipped to prevent localised unrest from escalating into a broader national crisis.

Defence Policy and Strategy

Beyond Guns and Butter: Why Strategy Must Come Before Budgets, Joan Swart

The debate over defence spending is often framed as a choice between security and development. This article argues that the real challenge is not choosing between "guns" and "butter", but ensuring that resource allocation is guided by clearly defined national interests, strategic objectives and long-term priorities. Strategy should inform budgets, not the other way around.

Defence Policy and Strategy

Defence Governance: Another Task Team or a Strategic Reset? Joan Swart

South Africa's defence sector does not appear to suffer from a shortage of audits, reviews, investigations or task teams. It suffers from a shortage of implementation. Using recent calls for a new defence task team as a starting point, this article explores why many of the same governance, capability and institutional challenges continue to reappear, and argues that meaningful reform may require greater strategic clarity, alignment and accountability across South Africa's defence ecosystem.

Africa and Global Power

The SANDF’s Crisis Is Not Financial — It Is Strategic, Joan Swart

South Africa’s defence crisis is often framed as a problem of insufficient funding. This article argues that the deeper challenge is one of strategic incoherence. Using the Clausewitzian framework of ends, ways, and means, it examines how misalignment between political ambition, force design, and available resources has contributed to the SANDF’s gradual erosion. The article contends that sustainable defence renewal requires sequenced institutional regeneration, realistic strategic prioritisation, and a revitalised defence-industrial base rather than aspirational expansion alone.

Africa and Global Power

The Unfinished Product of African Independence - Joan Swart

This article examines the persistent gap between symbolic recognition and functional capability in Africa’s post-independence statecraft. Using the Alliance of Sahel States and South Africa’s defence-industrial ecosystem as empirical anchors, it argues that strategic autonomy is engineered through institutional coherence, fiscal discipline, and accountable state-industry alignment. Sovereignty is not inherited; it is continuously built.

Africa and Global Power

South Africa’s Defence Dilemma in a Changing Security Environment - Joan Swart

South Africa’s defence difficulties are increasingly framed as a budget and personnel problem within the SANDF. This article argues that the deeper challenge is one of strategic coherence. Growing misalignment between political ambition, operational commitments, institutional capability, and changing security realities is weakening South Africa’s national security posture and regional influence within Southern Africa.

Africa and Global Power

AI and the Compression of Modern Warfare - Joan Swart

Artificial intelligence is transforming warfare by compressing the time available for human judgement. As conflict environments accelerate, states face growing challenges around strategic autonomy, decision-making, sovereignty, and the ability to maintain meaningful human oversight in increasingly machine-driven systems.

Africa Strategic Alignments

JIHADIST NETWORKS IN AFRICA - Dr Joan Swart

Abstract: In Nongqai Vol.17 No 5, Strategic Security Analyst Dr Joan Swart examines why, how and where Jihadist movements operate in Africa. Why do Jihadist movements survive and thrive despite the countermeasures African governments take against them?

Africa Strategic Alignments

STARLINK and CONNECTIVITY - Dr Joan Swart

In Nongqai Vol.17 No 4, Strategic Security Analyst Dr Joan Swart examines how and why STARLINK has become a buzz word not only in the age of Strategic Infrastructe and Interconnectivity, but also a bilateral political point of contention between South Africa and the United States.

Africa Strategic Alignments

NARRATIVE COHERENCE AND STRATEGIC POWER IN MODERN CONFLICT- Dr Joan Swart.

In Nongqai Vol.17 No 4, Strategic Security Analyst Dr Joan Swart examines how and why observers, policymakers, and analysts interpret the same events in sharply divergent ways, sometimes arriving at conclusions that seem not merely different, but incompatible.

Africa and Global Power

STRATEGIC FEEDBACK LOOPS - Dr Joan Swart.

NONGQAI's Strategic Security Analist Dr Joan Swart examines 'Strategic Feedback Loops': Why States Respond Differently—and Persist—in the Same Reality