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War-related disruption, economic pressure and growing public dissatisfaction are increasingly converging across the Middle East. The conditions differ from those of 2011, but their interaction could create a second-order Arab Spring dynamic in which external conflict feeds existing domestic grievances and produces a new wave of regional unrest.
The article evaluates Donald Trump’s understanding of foreign‑policy principles during his second presidential term, beginning in January 2025. It explains how his America First approach reshaped the United States’ global posture by abandoning long‑standing alliances, treaties, and aid commitments established after World War II. Trump’s foreign policy is described as personalised, transactional, and commercially driven, prioritising national interest, economic leverage, and rapid deal‑making over traditional diplomacy. The article highlights Trump’s criticism of European allies, his pressure on NATO members to increase defence spending, and his belief that the U.S. has been economically exploited through trade imbalances. His administration bypasses Congress, relies heavily on loyal advisers, and sidelines career diplomats. The 2025 National Security Strategy outlines Trump’s aim to expand U.S. influence in Latin America and Asia while reducing focus on Europe. His unilateral tactics, including trade wars and extensive executive orders, raise concerns about weakening multilateral institutions and expanding presidential power. Scholars warn that Trump’s legacy may reshape future U.S. foreign policy and executive authority. Trump’s approach treats international relations as negotiations centred on geo‑economics, using economic and financial tools as primary instruments of national power. Alliances and regional agreements are judged by their contribution to U.S. prosperity, industrial capacity, and job creation. His strategy seeks to constrain strategic competitors and re‑establish U.S. economic security at the core of a more contingent, deal‑driven international order.
